Wood Mackenzie Says That Indonesian Companies Will Make Up Two of the Top Three Thermal Coal Exporters Globally by 2015 BALI/SINGAPORE, 31st May 2011 –At Coaltrans Asia 2011 held today in Bali, Indonesia, Wood Mackenzie presented that, by 2015, two of the top three thermal exporters globally will be Indonesian companies. Their production and new domestic investments will be key to Indonesia making up the largest share of thermal coal growth for exports in the next decade. This production boom will benefit the country’s economy and find opportunities in China, even with one billion tonnes of increased Chinese production expected.
Rudi Vann, Wood Mackenzie’s Lead Analyst for South East and North East Asia Coal Research says, “Bumi Resources and Adaro Energy will be two of the top three thermal coal exporters by 2015. They each own mines at the top of the ten largest mine expansions for thermal exports in the world. In all, six of the ten belong to Indonesia. The production increase in mines plus greenfield projects will propel Indonesia to account for the largest share of thermal coal production growth for exports. This will also benefit the local economy with a record high of US$7 billion contribution to government revenue this year.”
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will produce an additional one billion tonnes by 2015 but says that this will still struggle to keep pace with demand. Additionally, the domestic production increase is heavily dependant on infrastructure expansions because of the distance between demand centres and the majority of China’s supply growth. Any delay in infrastructure projects will therefore widen the supply gap.
Vann says,” With opportunities for thermal seaborne exports, Indonesia needs to continue to attract new investors to sustain production increase ahead of its largest competitor- Australia. In fact, by 2020, 60% of the 133 Million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of new production from greenfield projects will be used for export supply. What will best attract investors to Indonesia instead of Australia will be competitive cash costs as well as attractive and stable fiscal terms.”
“Indonesia has relatively attractive fiscal terms as compared to Australia with a lower government take and lesser risk of fiscal instability. At the moment, Australia faces higher risks of increased taxes from the potential Minerals Resource Rent Tax and carbon tax. This instability could discourage new projects, driving investments towards Indonesia instead.”
In summary, Wood Mackenzie says that Indonesia’s coal industry looks positive with Indonesian companies placed as two of the top three largest thermal coal exporters by 2015. The supply centre is also set for a significant increase in export thermal production, which will be gearing up for China’s growing demand requirements. Indonesia will thus be well-placed to sustain growth now by attracting continued new investments. This is best encouraged through maintaining competitive cash costs and comparatively stable fiscal terms.“